Exports likely buoyed S Korea GDP growth in Q4, braking China dims outlook







South Korea's economy likely accelerated in the last quarter, buoyed by strong exports and investments, but an economic slowdown in China and surging COVID-19 cases pose a significant risk, a Reuters poll found.



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Asia's fourth-largest economy is expected to have expanded a seasonally-adjusted 0.9per cent in the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast of 10 economists, up from a 0.3per cent rise in the preceding quarter.



However, the survey showed growth in annual terms likely slowed to a median 3.7per cent, based on a higher sample of 16 economists, from 4.0per cent in the third quarter, partly due to the above-trend expansion registered in the comparable period in 2020.



The data will be released on Jan. 25.



"It is highly probable private consumption has weakened somewhat due to the re-spread of the COVID-19 in Korea, but solid exports and investments supported growth in Q4," said Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Financial Investment in Seoul.



South Korea's recovery from a pandemic-induced economic slump has been largely driven by robust exports, which expanded at their fastest pace in 11 years in 2021. By destination, exports to China, the United States and the European Union rose 22.9per cent, 29.4per cent and 33.9per cent, respectively.



But an upsurge in COVID-19 cases, the waning effects of pandemic-related stimulus and an economic slowdown in China, the country's largest trade and investment partner, will weigh heavily on the economy this year and next.